Foreign Affairs

Pentagon’s Own Intel Undercuts Claims Of Space Superiority Over Iran

(Photo by Department of War)

Iran is using space-based intelligence to help target American military installations across the Middle East despite U.S. efforts to destroy its space infrastructure.

The Pentagon’s assessment raises questions about American claims of achieving space superiority over Iran during Operation Epic Fury. It also highlights Tehran’s growing reliance on Chinese and Russian satellite technology to threaten American forces throughout the Middle East, Axios reported.

The war began Feb. 28 when American and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes against Iran, with Israel describing the operation as an effort to eliminate threats to its security, according to the Israel Defense Forces.

“We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action, we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged during March 2 remarks.

Rubio argued that striking Iran preemptively would prevent American casualties, although he subsequently maintained that Washington intended to confront Iran regardless of Israeli military plans, according to his March 3 remarks.

At least 23 American service members have died in operations connected to the war, including 11 killed by hostile action and 12 in noncombat incidents, according to the Pentagon’s Defense Casualty Analysis System. Another 866 American troops have been wounded in action, according to the Pentagon’s latest figures.

The war has also inflicted thousands of casualties across the Middle East.

At least 3,636 people were killed in Iran by April 7, including 1,701 civilians, according to a Congressional Research Service report. The figures do not account for subsequent casualties from renewed American and Israeli military operations.

In Lebanon, Israeli military operations have killed at least 4,389 people and wounded another 12,428 since March 2, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry’s Oct. 30 assessment.

Iranian attacks had also killed at least 60 people in Israel and 28 across Persian Gulf states by late August, Al Jazeera reported, citing government and health ministry figures.

The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) designated Iran an “emerging” space power in its Oct. 26 assessment, warning that the Islamic Republic continues developing capabilities capable of challenging American military operations despite extensive U.S. bombardment, according to the agency’s published report.

American and Iranian forces have conducted offensive operations against each other’s space capabilities during the war, according to the DIA. Iran relied partly on ground-based electronic warfare systems capable of jamming satellite communications and GPS signals used by American forces.

Those capabilities remain particularly dangerous around the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian electronic warfare has repeatedly interfered with satellite navigation.

Significant GPS jamming and spoofing continue to threaten vessels throughout the Persian Gulf and surrounding waterways, according to an active Maritime Administration advisory. American officials have urged commercial mariners to supplement satellite navigation with traditional methods, including radar and visual bearings.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily disrupted more than eight months after the war began. Just five vessels crossed the waterway on Nov. 4, including two inbound and three outbound, while no tankers were recorded departing the Persian Gulf, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward.

However, oil continues flowing through alternative routes and specialized tanker operations. Gulf oil exports averaged approximately 17.1 million barrels per day in October, down from 18.9 million in September and roughly 75% of prewar levels, Reuters reported, citing shipping intelligence firm Vortexa.

Regional exporters have increasingly relied on pipelines bypassing Hormuz and tankers operating without broadcasting their locations. More than 70% of the crude crossing the strait in August was transferred to other vessels outside the waterway, according to shipping intelligence firm Kpler.

The danger remains substantial despite those adaptations. Iranian forces attacked at least four tankers around the strait between Oct. 29 and 30, including one vessel struck by explosives attached to its hull, according to Windward. The findings complicate earlier declarations of American dominance over Iran’s space capabilities.

U.S. forces achieved “space superiority” after destroying Iran’s space command infrastructure, U.S. Central Command commander Adm. Brad Cooper declared in March, according to Defense One.

The Space Force subsequently defended that assessment, arguing that American forces retained freedom to operate while denying Iran comparable capabilities, former Chief of Space Operations Gen. Chance Saltzman said during an April Mitchell Institute event.

However, Iran’s continued interference with American space systems raises questions about whether Washington genuinely established that advantage.

“If Iran can degrade U.S. space capabilities, we don’t have superiority,” American Enterprise Institute aerospace expert Todd Harrison told Axios.

Iran’s capabilities remain vastly inferior to those of the United States, with approximately 12 operational satellites compared with an American fleet more than 1,000 times larger, according to AEI’s data.

Tehran nevertheless demonstrated progress in 2024 when its domestically developed Simorgh rocket successfully delivered three satellites into low-Earth orbit, according to the DIA.

Foreign assistance has helped Iran compensate for its comparatively limited domestic capabilities.

The State Department sanctioned three Chinese companies in May over their assistance to Iranian military operations, including providing satellite imagery of American installations throughout the Middle East, according to its official announcement.

One company, Chang Guang Satellite Technology, collected imagery of American and allied military facilities to fulfill Iranian requests, while another, The Earth Eye, supplied Tehran with satellite imagery during Operation Epic Fury, according to the State Department.

Russia has similarly supported Iran’s space ambitions, launching Iranian remote-sensing satellites in 2022 and 2024, according to the DIA.

The growing availability of satellite intelligence allows countries with relatively primitive domestic space programs to acquire capabilities once reserved for major powers.

“Space is accessible and affordable today,” Space Forces Central commander Brig. Gen. Todd Benson said during an October Mitchell Institute webinar, according to Axios.

Iran is also working to make its military navigation and guidance systems more resistant to electronic attacks while expanding civilian and military space operations, according to the DIA.

The threat underscores the limitations of destroying an adversary’s space infrastructure when foreign intelligence support and ground-based electronic warfare systems remain operational.