National Defense

Israel’s Election Chaos Could Fuel A New Iran War Escalation

(DoD Photo by Master Sgt. Adrian Cadiz)(Released)

As the dust settles on Israel’s recent election, the consequences for American foreign policy could be dire as the Iran War teeters on the edge of a fresh escalation.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing President Donald Trump to launch another military offensive against Iran as Israel’s election deadlock threatens his hold on power, the Associated Press reported Monday, citing two regional officials and a person familiar with the matter. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition secured just 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset following Israel’s Oct. 27 parliamentary election, eight short of a governing majority.

“The bigger concern will be how Israel’s election is interpreted in Tehran,” Blaise Misztal, vice president for policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Hamas, mistaking democratic disagreement for political decline, launched its horrible massacre on October 7, 2023, in part out of a belief that Israel was weak. Iran might make a similar mistake now and, thinking that Israel lacks a government, see this [as] an opportune moment to escalate.”

The principal opposition bloc secured 48 seats, while two Arab-led parties won another 19, according to Israel’s Central Elections Committee.

The American military has suffered 23 deaths, including 11 from hostile incidents and 12 from noncombat causes, while another 865 personnel have been wounded by enemy fire, according to the Pentagon’s casualty database. At least 36 civilians were also killed in Israel during Operation Roaring Lion, according to Israel’s National Insurance Institute.

The war has killed more than 8,000 people in Iran and Lebanon alone since American and Israeli forces launched their offensive on Feb. 28, according to figures compiled by regional health authorities and independent monitors.

At least 3,636 people were killed in Iran during the initial six weeks of fighting, including 1,701 civilians and at least 254 children, according to the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Another 4,389 people have been killed and 12,428 wounded in Lebanon since March 2, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry.

The results theoretically give Netanyahu’s opponents 67 seats, enough to remove the longtime prime minister. However, major divisions over cooperation with Arab parties threaten to prevent the opposition from forming a government, according to an analysis published Friday by Israeli political analyst Daniel Levy.

Former Israel Defense Forces chief Gadi Eisenkot, who leads the centrist Yashar party, has emerged as Netanyahu’s principal challenger after securing 21 parliamentary seats. Eisenkot’s broader opposition bloc controls 48 seats, leaving him dependent on additional parliamentary support to form a government, according to The Times of Israel.

“Netanyahu remains in power for now and so will act as he chooses,” J.D. Foster, a former senior fellow on the economics of fiscal policy at The Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “If he thinks he can’t form a coalition, he may launch attacks at strategic targets in Iran. Either way, Netanyahu and Eisenkot appear to have very similar views regarding Iran, so Israel’s attitude toward and willingness to act against Iran seem unlikely to change even if Eisenkot somehow prevails.”

Netanyahu’s Likud party emerged as the largest individual faction with 27 seats, while the opposition Yashar party secured 21. The Joint List won 11 seats and the United Arab List, also known as Ra’am, secured eight, according to the Central Elections Committee.

The unprecedented Arab representation could determine Netanyahu’s political future, although several opposition leaders have resisted forming a coalition dependent on Palestinian Arab lawmakers, Levy argued in his analysis.

The opposition faces a difficult choice between cooperating with Arab parties, pursuing a unity government with Netanyahu’s Likud or risking another election. A temporary minority government supported by Arab lawmakers remains possible, although its prospects are limited, according to Levy.

President Isaac Herzog will consult parliamentary factions before selecting a candidate to form the next government. The initial candidate would ordinarily receive 28 days to assemble a coalition, according to the Israeli presidency.

The new Knesset is scheduled to convene Nov. 10, potentially allowing Netanyahu’s opponents to pursue parliamentary action against him even without forming a government, according to the Congressional Research Service.

However, the political uncertainty could carry consequences far beyond Israel.

A renewed confrontation with Iran could create conditions for Netanyahu to establish an emergency unity government, potentially allowing him to survive his electoral setback, Levy warned in his analysis.

Such an operation would likely require American participation, making Trump’s position particularly important. Netanyahu could use the period following Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections to push for renewed American-backed strikes against Iran, potentially creating a national security emergency that would pressure opposition parties to join a unity government and allow him to remain in power, Levy argued in his analysis.

Netanyahu reportedly pressed Trump for renewed strikes during a weekend telephone conversation, although the American president declined to commit to military action, the Associated Press reported, citing a person briefed on the call.

Trump has not reached a final decision and would prefer a diplomatic resolution, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Saturday, according to the Associated Press.

The administration has already warned Gulf governments to prepare for a possible short military campaign after the midterms, while American forces reinforce Israel’s missile defenses and replenish weapons, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing officials familiar with the preparations.

Conservative commentator Tucker Carlson went further Monday, accusing Netanyahu of pressuring Trump to launch a nuclear strike against Iran’s heavily fortified Pickaxe Mountain facility to preserve his political career.

The potential escalation follows the American-Israeli military campaign launched Feb. 28, which Washington said was intended to destroy Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities and weaken its regional proxies, according to the White House.

The Trump administration previously declared Iran’s nuclear facilities “obliterated” following American airstrikes in June 2025, according to the White House. Former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard subsequently maintained that Iran’s enrichment program had been destroyed and that Tehran had made no attempts to rebuild it, according to her March congressional testimony.

The U.S. entered the February 2026 conflict knowing Israel intended to attack Iran and that Tehran would likely retaliate against American forces, Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged on March 2. “We knew that there was going to be an Israeli action. We knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces,” Rubio told reporters, although he later insisted the administration had independently determined that military action against Iran was necessary.

Meanwhile, mediators are pursuing another diplomatic agreement that could halt Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the American blockade of Iranian ports, the Associated Press reported, citing regional officials.

“When it comes to Iran, there is no political uncertainty in Israel,” Misztal told the DCNF. “Every party that might conceivably lead the next Israeli government agrees on the need to defeat the Iranian threat. Whatever happens politically in Israel, the United States will find in Jerusalem, as it always has, a willing partner, ready to shoulder the burden of defending American interests.”