Commentary: Big Tent Ideas

STEVE CORTES: Who Are Trump Voters And What Do They Want?

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. at a rally with former President Donald Trump in Glendale, Ariz., Aug. 23, 2024. (Screen Capture/CSPAN)

For context, recall that Republicans lost the popular vote in seven of the last eight presidential elections before Trump/Vance 2024.

But in Wisconsin, Trump improved his margin materially among the state’s large Catholic population, did much better with women vs. prior runs, and soared among young men. Those same trends held true nationwide.

But just months later, in the Wisconsin state supreme court race on April 1 of this year, the liberal candidate Susan Crawford easily prevailed against former conservative candidate Brad Schimel. Despite a radical record as an activist and judge, Crawford sailed to a +10% margin victory, beating Schimel by nearly a quarter million votes. Trump endorsed Schimel, who seemed to run a competent campaign that was well financed, with record millions in donations pouring into the race on both sides.

So, what explains this divergence between last fall and this spring in the Badger State?

Some issues are peculiar to Wisconsin, to be sure. For instance, in a heavily unionized state, Democrat get-out-the-vote operations matter massively in an off-year election without a marquee name to motivate right-leaning voters.

But two larger issues loom, ones that we in the America First movement must acknowledge and manage going forward, especially into the key 2026 midterms.

New GOP Coalition

First, the GOP transforms into the party of patriotic populist nationalism, a coalition of working-class voters, across racial and ethnic lines. This coalition is a winning one when properly activated, and even attracts legions of young people. For instance, Trump won 18-year-olds nationally. Among young men 18-29 years old, Trump went from 41% of that vote in 2020 to 56% in 2024. Among Hispanic young men, Trump moved an astounding +38% on margin.

These incredible gains point to the potential for a populist Right political domination for decades to come.

Low Propensity Voter Base

But … there is a problem. These voters are generally not politically obsessed, and they are difficult to turn out, especially without Donald John Trump on the ballot.

So, given these circumstances, how do we motivate these voters and win elections?

To find answers, my League of American Workers advocacy organization commissioned an extensive poll of over 3,300 Wisconsin voters. Respected pollster TIPP Insights conducted the survey and asked penetrating questions of the Trump voters in the heartland.

Among the key findings are these three characteristics of Trump voters:

1. It’s Not a Personality Cult. Yes, Trump has indeed earned a committed ride-or-die base. But, the overwhelming majority of Trump voters approach politics pragmatically. In spite of media narrative, these voters do not worship Trump, but instead make a sensible choice to determine which politician will benefit their own lives, and the success of our nation. For instance, among Trump voters, only a fractional 7% responded “I only care about Trump.” In contrast, over 70% of those voters who switch down ballot reported that they either “do not trust” other Republicans, or that those candidates are “part of the establishment.”

2. The GOP Brand Is Tarnished. Trump voters convey material disdain for the party. These voters totally dismiss the Democratic Party as awful, to be sure. But neither do they trust Republicans broadly. In this survey, 43% of Trump voters admit they do not vote for other Republicans.

3. Nationalism and Authenticity Matter Most. Unlike non-Trump voters, this electorate does not place economic issues at the top of their priority list. Instead, they emphasize “America First” policies combined with a genuineness they can trust. For instance, when queried in a “max diff” exercise, where the respondent must pick between two competing goals, twice as many select “puts America first” vs. “trust his economic policies.” The top three priorities in the max diff analysis are: “America First,” followed by “strong on immigration,” and then “delivers on promises.”

So, given these traits, how does the GOP convert on this opportunity and activate this coalition? In turn, how does our movement leverage the party?

The primary consideration in this new age with little partisan attachment: Candidate selection becomes paramount.

More than the right ideas, more than funding – this broad, energetic, restless coalition simply demands very different nominees compared to Republican norms.

To get specific, on policies, the candidates must be aligned on America First. Meaning, they believe in sovereignty to their core – and will fight like rabid dogs to secure America’s borders and get dangerous illegals out of our country. Other policies are negotiable.

Aside from that strong stance, they must be believable. Trump voters are understandably ticked off, because they recognize that the ruling class of this country has disparaged and disregarded them for decades. These deplorables know that a crooked system has cheated them, and they have almost zero automatic trust for a candidate, even with an “R” after their name.

Admittedly, pre-judging candidate authenticity can be tough. But, as a rule, defer to outsiders. Find impressive people who have not held office, or at least not for long. Search for achievers outside of politics to have some measure of name recognition.

Authenticity + patriotic populism is the winning formula. Only then will we capture this volatile but promising moment in American politics.

Let’s get to work.