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Chris Cillizza Cautions Dems To ‘Be Wary’ About Predicting Blue Wave For 2026 Following ‘Good’ Election Results

Screenshot/YouTube/Chris Cillizza

Former CNN political analyst Chris Cillizza warned Democrats on Wednesday to be cautious about predicting a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections following positive indicators during Tuesday’s special elections.

Democrats outperformed their margins against President Donald Trump in 2024 as Republican candidates held two vacant Florida House seats, while liberal Susan Crawford beat conservative Brad Schimel in the race to fill a vacant seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Cillizza, on his YouTube channel, said although Tuesday was “a good day and night” for Democrats, forecasting the 2026 election results is still premature.

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“Yes, they lost two of the three big elections that were on the ballot, but all signs point to positives, right? Both the Florida Democrats significantly overperformed — one by 22 points, one by 16 points. To have that happen in districts that are overwhelmingly Republican shows you that the Democratic base, in a low-turnout election, is very fired up,” Cillizza said. “In Wisconsin, this is a swing state. Anytime you win in a swing state in a statewide election — whether it’s for president or state supreme court — by ten, you got to be really, really happy.”

“I still think they have major league brand problems, but what this showed is it gives them something to hang their hat on, something to say, ‘This was good. We did well,’ and builds a little bit of momentum. And you know what? Politics, like life, is a lot about forward momentum and I think this will help Democrats get some,” he added.

However, Cillizza then went on to caution Democrats about being prematurely optimistic about 2026’s midterms. “Although, as I’ve said before, be wary of making predictions about what this means for the midterm elections. There’s a lot of time between now and then. There’s going to be a much larger turnout between now and then.”

Democrats also performed strongly in 2017 special elections, The New York Times reported. Cillizza made a similar point. “They won a special election in a Pennsylvania House race. Conor Lamb was the guy who won that in a pretty Republican district, and it just seemed as though the signs were pointing that 2018 was going to be a very good year in a midterm election for House Democrats,” the former CNN analyst said.

The Florida special elections in Florida were held to replace former Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz and Michael Waltz, who serves as Trump’s national security advisor. Former Florida Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis defeated Democratic candidate Gay Valimont by 14.8% in the race to replace Gaetz while Republican state Sen. Randy Fine beat Democratic candidate Josh Weil by 14% in the race to replace Waltz.

However, Trump carried both districts by 30% or more during the November general election.