12 More House Seats Shift In Democrats’ Favor

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (AFGE, CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons)

Cook Political Report shifted 12 more House races toward Democrats Friday as midterm-election expectations remained grim for Republicans.

Eight Republican-held seats shifted in Democrats’ favor, including Republican Pennsylvania Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick’s seat in Pennsylvania’s first district and Republican Indiana Rep. Victoria Spartz’s seat in Indiana’s fifth district, according to Cook Political Report. The projection would give Democrats up to 240 seats in the House in the next Congress if they flip between 12 and 25 seats.

The elections forecaster previously shifted nineteen races toward Democrats on Oct. 23, including four Republican-held seats.

Democratic Florida Rep. Darren Soto’s seat in Florida’s ninth district shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican.” Soto’s seat was redrawn in May to give Republicans an advantage, although polling showed that Soto is tied with Republican Florida congressional candidate Dan Green.

Ohio’s ninth district was redrawn in October 2025 to make it significantly more Republican, although Cook Political Report shifted the race from a “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic.” Democratic Ohio Rep. Marcy Kaptur is fighting to defend her seat in the district against Republican Ohio congressional nominee Derek Merrin.

Spartz’s seat shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” in a district that President Donald Trump won by 17 points in the 2024 election. The House Majority PAC, House Democrats’ top super PAC, spent $380,000 on television advertisements opposing Spartz on Monday, indicating that they view the district as competitive.

An open seat in Florida’s seventh district shifted from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” and another open seat in South Carolina’s first district moved from leaning Republican to a toss up.

The seats in North Carolina’s fifth district, North Carolina’s ninth district, New Jersey’s second district and Washington’s fifth district shifted from “Solidly Republican” to “Likely Republican.” The seats are held by Republican North Carolina Reps. Virginia Foxx and Richard Hudson, Republican New Jersey Rep. Jeff Van Drew and Republican Washington Rep. Michael Baumgartner.

Fitzpatrick’s race against Democratic Pennsylvania congressional candidate Bob Harvie has also become more competitive, as a recent New York Times/Siena University poll found Harvie leading Fitzpatrick by a 48% to 46% margin.

Republicans slashed spending in some districts they hoped to flip in November, including Texas’ 28th district, where Democratic Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar is up for reelection. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House super PAC, canceled approximately $3 million in planned advertisement spending against Cuellar while the incumbent congressman held a 20-point lead in the polls.

The Congressional Leadership Fund also slashed $6 million in planned advertising to oppose Democratic Florida Rep. Jared Moskowitz in Florida’s 25th district. The state Legislature redrew the district in May to help Republicans flip the seat.

The No Going Back PAC, a super PAC backed by MAGA Inc., planned to spend $6.3 million in the district after the Congressional Leadership Fund backed out.