Conservative-Leaning Forecaster Shifts Darline Graham’s Senate Bid To Toss Up

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Fox News shifted Republican South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham’s Senate bid Thursday from “Lean Republican” to a “Toss Up.”

A New York Times/Siena poll from Wednesday found Graham and Democratic South Carolina Senate nominee Annie Andrews tied at 48%, which followed other polls showing the two candidates were neck-and-neck. Fox News’ election forecaster updated its prediction, stating that it is widely agreed the race is “uncomfortably close.”

“We’re updating this forecast to move South Carolina from Lean R to Toss-up,” the forecaster said. “As this week’s Power Rankings reported, Republicans already viewed this as an uncomfortably close race. That belief is now widely shared.”

The Senate Leadership Fund, Senate Republicans’ main campaign arm, spent $5 million on South Carolina in early October to help Graham while she held a slight edge in the polls. The South Carolina Republican led by an average of 2.4 points as of Thursday, according to RealClearPolling.

The Senate Leadership Fund did not spend any money on Graham’s campaign beforehand, indicating that national Republicans were worried about her chances of keeping the seat.

The Trafalgar Group, a conservative-leaning pollster based in Atlanta, Georgia, found Graham leading Andrews 43.4% to 42.3% in a September survey. An InsiderAdvantage poll from Sept. 10 found Graham leading by two points, 45.1% to 43.2%, while an Impact Research survey from mid-August found them tied at 41%.

Graham defeated Republican South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman in the Aug. 25 primary runoff after receiving President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Republican South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed her to replace her late brother, former Republican South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, who died on July 11.

Norman accused Trump of spending millions of dollars “spreading false narratives about why Darline Graham is qualified to be elected to the U.S. Senate,” according to Fox News. He said he would not campaign with Graham in the final week before Election Day.

Graham stumbled through a question about whether Taiwan and the South China Sea were national security issues for the U.S. during an Aug. 19 primary debate.

“Senator, are Taiwan and the South China Sea national security issues for the United States? If so, why?” Newsmax host Greta Van Susteren asked.

“I’m just going to be honest here. I’m not that informed on national security,” Graham said. “So … But I do support the military.”

Many South Carolina Republicans were caught off guard when Graham entered the race. South Carolina Freedom Conference Chairman Jordan Pace told the Daily Caller on Aug.11 that the party did not support her serving a full term.

Graham’s late brother strongly supported the Iran war and backed a ground takeover of Kharg Island by U.S. troops. He urged billions of dollars be sent to fund Ukraine’s war against Russia, repeatedly supported the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and maintained a strong relationship with Israeli leadership. He called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to be assassinated in March 2022.

South Carolina has not had a Democratic senator since 2005 when former Democratic South Carolina Sen. Fritz Hollings left office. Republicans control the South Carolina state Legislature, consisting of an 89 to 35 majority in the state House of Representatives and 34 to 12 in the state Senate.

Cook Political Report shifted 19 House races toward Democrats Friday, including four seats currently held by Republicans. Republican PACs poured unprecedented amounts of money into Senate races in deep-red states, such as Texas and Kansas, while the Republican candidates faced competitive races against their Democratic opponents.