Elections Forecaster Shifts 4 Republican-Held Seats Toward Democrats

(Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour)

Cook Political Report shifted four Republican-held seats from “Toss Up” to “Lean Democratic” in a Friday report.

The elections forecaster shifted the races in Arizona’s sixth district, Colorado’s eighth district, Virginia’s second district and Wisconsin’s third district into the “Lean Democratic” column less than two weeks before Election Day. Republican Reps. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona, Gabe Evans of Colorado, Jen Kiggans of Virginia and Derrick Van Orden of Wisconsin currently hold those seats.

President Donald Trump won all four of these districts in the 2024 presidential election. He won in Virginia’s second district by 0.2 percentage points, while he won by less than one percentage point in Arizona’s sixth district.

The elections forecaster shifted 19 House races toward Democrats. The party is favored to take back the House after the midterms, with 220 seats rated either Solid, Likely or Lean Democratic. Republicans are favored in 198 seats.

Ciscomani trailed Democratic Arizona congressional candidate JoAnna Mendoza in the polls. Public Policy Polling found Mendoza leading Ciscomani by one point in mid-October.

A survey by McLaughlin & Associates from mid-September found Evans leading Democratic Colorado congressional candidate Manny Rutinel by two points, 48% to 46%. The results were in the margin of error. Trump won Colorado’s eighth district by a 50% to 48% margin in 2024.

Van Orden trailed in the polls against Democratic Wisconsin congressional nominee Rebecca Cooke, who led by two points in a Public Policy Polling survey in October. Other surveys from June found Cooke with a four-point lead.

Two other races in Texas’ 34th district and North Carolina’s eleventh district shifted from toss ups to leaning Democratic. Texas’ 34th district is held by Democratic Texas Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, who is seeking reelection. North Carolina’s district is held by Republican North Carolina Rep. Chuck Edwards, who announced he would not seek reelection after investigators concluded he engaged in inappropriate conduct.

Affordability remained the top issue in the election cycle while Trump’s economic approval rating remained low. High gas prices and the Iran war caused voters to become frustrated with Republicans in both the House and Senate races.

Republicans have backed away from some House races they were hoping to pick up in November. The Congressional Leadership Fund, the House Republicans’ top super PAC, slashed $6 million from Florida’s 25th district and allocated $9 million to districts held by Republicans. The 25th district was redrawn to benefit Republicans.

The super PAC also slashed $3 million from Texas’ 28th district, which was redrawn to help Republicans oust Democratic Texas Rep. Henry Cuellar. Trump won the district by seven percentage points in 2024.

Cuellar held a comfortable lead in the polls against Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, according to The New York Times.