Business

First Consumers, Now CEOs: Economic Confidence Crumbles As Inflation Bites

Corporate boardroom (Iboota/Creative Commons)

America’s corporate executives are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy, joining consumers whose confidence has deteriorated amid stubborn inflation and rising living costs, according to a survey released Thursday by The Conference Board and The Business Council.

CEO confidence fell into negative territory during the fourth quarter of 2026, potentially driven by rising geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices, according to The Conference Board’s chief economist, Dana Peterson. The findings follow a sharp deterioration in consumer sentiment and fresh inflation data showing that Americans face mounting price pressures, raising concerns about the economy’s direction heading into 2027.

The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence fell six points to 46 from 52 in the previous quarter, its lowest reading since the second quarter of 2025. Readings below 50 indicate that negative responses outnumber positive ones. The survey included 131 CEOs and was conducted between Sept. 21 and Oct. 5.

The share of CEOs expecting economic conditions to worsen over the next six months more than doubled to 41%, up from 19% in the previous quarter. Just 13% expected conditions to improve, down from 25%.

“CEO confidence fell in Q4 2026 to its lowest level since Q2 2025,” Peterson said in the release.

The deterioration among corporate executives mirrors growing pessimism among American consumers. The University of Michigan’s preliminary October survey showed consumer sentiment falling to 46.3 from 48.1 in September, approaching a record low as households struggled with rising costs.

Consumers’ assessment of current economic conditions dropped to 44.7, while expectations for inflation over the next year rose to 4.7%.

The Conference Board’s separate consumer confidence index also declined in September, falling 6.7 points to 81.9 as Americans grew more concerned about employment, income and business conditions.

The pessimism follows Wednesday’s inflation report, which showed consumer prices rising 3.7% annually in September, up from 3.4% in August. Gasoline prices surged 9.1% during the month, adding pressure to households already grappling with elevated borrowing costs.

Corporate executives also reported growing concerns about risks facing their industries. Cybersecurity topped the list, with 71% rating it a high-impact risk, up from 63% in the previous quarter. Artificial intelligence and emerging technology followed at 64%, while geopolitical risks climbed to 58%.

Most CEOs stopped short of cutting investment plans. Some 53% expected no change in capital spending over the next 12 months, while 36% anticipated increasing investment, up from 31% in the third quarter.

Hiring intentions were similarly mixed, with 33% planning to expand their workforces and 31% expecting reductions, suggesting that deteriorating confidence had not yet translated into broad plans to pull back on spending or employment.