US

Tanker Data Shows Millions Fewer Barrels A Day Crossing Hormuz Than Energy Secretary Says

Energy Secretary Chris Wright (Screen Capture/CSPAN)

Tanker-tracking data shows a smaller recovery in oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz than Energy Secretary Chris Wright described Monday.

Speaking by video to an international energy conference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Wright said oil moving through the strait was back to 80 to 90 percent of its prewar level, or 13 million to 14 million barrels per day, Asharq Al-Awsat reported. He said shipments of refined fuels such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline out of the Gulf were still only 25 to 35 percent of prewar levels.

“Energy statistics can be difficult to collect and therefore imprecise and subject to revision. As a result, sources sometimes disagree,” Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners, said in a statement to the Daily Caller News Foundation. “That said, we suspect the secretary has access to pretty good information.”

Crude crossing Hormuz averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day in the week ended Oct. 3, roughly 23 percent below Kpler’s prewar figure of 13.5 million barrels per day, CNBC reported, citing the tanker-tracking firm’s data. Windward, another tracking firm, put the flow at 9 million to 10 million barrels per day, compared with 14.5 million before the war, according to the outlet.

In August, Wright wrote on X that the seven-day average for oil leaving the strait was “almost 9 million barrels per day.” He added that pipelines and export facilities were moving another 5 million to 7 million barrels per day out of the region, for a total of about 15 million.

The Department of Energy did not immediately respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.

“NCEA [National Center for Energy Analytics] has followed Gulf crude oil and product liftings since the advent of the crisis,” Matthew McManus, a senior fellow at the center and a former State Department official, said in a statement to the DCNF. “Redundant pipelines in Saudi Arabia, the UAE [United Arab Emirates] and to a lesser extent Iraq have all put substantial volumes of, predominately crude oil, on the market.”

“These flows, and the proportion of oil moved by pipeline and through the strait itself will fluctuate week to week but, historically to date, combined track with the ranges provided by Kpler and DOE [the Department of Energy],” McManus said.

Kpler counted at least 16.5 million barrels per day of crude leaving the Gulf region from Sept. 1 to Sept. 28, matching the region’s prewar average without Iran, which is under a U.S. blockade.

Saudi and Emirati pipelines now carry about 40 percent of that crude around the strait, up from 17 percent before the war, the firm found.

About 60 percent, or 9.9 million barrels per day, still crossed Hormuz in September, mostly on shuttle tankers that hand their cargoes to other ships in the Gulf of Oman. Confirmed crossings remained more than a quarter below their prewar level, Kpler said.

“Hormuz crude volumes may be recovering faster because products — and the refineries that manufacture them — have not,” Book, the ClearView Energy Partners managing director, said in his statement. “Simply put, processing less oil in refineries leaves more to export.”

The Middle East supplied about 15 percent of global diesel exports and about 8 percent of global gasoline exports in 2025, Book added, citing OPEC data.

Diesel averaged $6.27 a gallon nationally Monday, up from $3.67 a year earlier, according to the American Automobile Association.

Nearly 20 commercial ships, mostly tankers, came under attack in Hormuz, the Persian Gulf, or off Oman in the month before Oct. 6, CNBC reported, citing the Joint Maritime Information Center, a group of U.S.-allied militaries. The U.S. military has been protecting tankers using a southern route near Oman’s coast, the outlet said.

The energy secretary said the crude supply problem was mostly under control but not yet fully solved, according to Asharq Al-Awsat.

He said costlier shipping, longer voyages and Iranian attacks on ships had slowed the return of fuel shipments from the Gulf.

He also said China, which announced it would not export refined fuels during October, had sharply cut those exports, while U.S. refineries were running at record levels.