Healthcare

US Healthcare Workforce Shortage On Track To Nearly Double By 2040

A hospital room. (Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour)

The U.S. may be on the verge of a major health workforce crisis in the near future, according to analysts.

Recent estimates from healthcare educator Covista expect the nation’s health workforce shortage to nearly double by 2040. Experts warned the Daily Caller News Foundation that a growing workforce gap across the U.S. healthcare system could result in lower quality medical care and limit patients’ access to some crucial services.

“By 2040, the U.S. could be short more than 2 million healthcare workers,” Covista Chief Growth and Innovation Officer Michael Betz told the DCNF. “The shortage could cost the average American household up to $1,250 a year and put significant strain on the healthcare system. Rural and underserved communities would feel it first and hardest.”

“The [workforce] gap isn’t inevitable, though. If educators, policymakers, and health system leaders work together, we can nearly close it and build a more efficient system that serves Americans better,” Betz continued. “At its core, the healthcare workforce gap is structural. Demand for healthcare workers is growing faster than our ability to train them and get them into the workforce.”

Covista’s research suggests that solving the nation’s nursing shortage could save nearly 100,000 lives cumulatively by 2040, while fixing the physician gap could add more than six months to patients’ average life expectancy.

Americans may have limited access to care if the physician workforce gap continues to grow, according to Michael Dill, director of workforce studies at the Association of American Medical Colleges.

“If the physician workforce shortage continues to grow, access to medical care will become increasingly limited, and patients may face longer wait times,” Dill said. “The shortage could also have a real impact on public health while placing additional strain on practicing physicians, for whom burnout is already a serious concern.”

“Supply has not kept up with demand,” he added. “The U.S. population has been growing and aging significantly, but the nation’s capacity to train new physicians has not grown at the pace needed to keep up. While the number of U.S. medical schools has grown remarkably over the past 20 years, there has not been similar growth in the residency and fellowship positions physicians need to train in their chosen specialties.”

Some healthcare professionals are choosing to leave the workforce early amid burnout and mental health issues, per the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Federal authorities have previously projected a shortage of 267,330 full-time registered nurses by 2028, according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing (AACN).

“Nurses comprise the largest component of the healthcare workforce, are the primary providers of hospital-based care, deliver most of the nation’s long-term care, and provide an increasing amount of urgent care,” AACN Chief Communications Officer Robert Rosseter told the DCNF. “Having too few nurses available to provide care impacts access to healthcare and the quality of care provided.”

“On units without enough nurses, staff can be stretched too thin and patient care may suffer,” he explained. “Having a robust supply of registered nurses throughout the healthcare system is essential to ensuring that all patients, including those in rural and underserved areas, have access to services.”