Energy

Data Center Boom Could Supercharge Blackouts Nationwide By 2030, Pennsylvania Regulators Warn

Data center (Azraelito/Wikimedia Commons)

America’s AI gold rush could soon drive the nation’s largest power grid to blackouts.

Pennsylvania regulators warn that power-hungry facilities are arriving faster than new generation. Pennsylvania could experience as many as 13 loss-of-load events per year by 2030 if more data centers connect than currently anticipated and no new plants come online, Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PAPUC) Chairman Stephen DeFrank warned.

DeFrank’s statements are based on a recent PAPUC analysis assessing electricity within the state.

“Pennsylvania is at an energy crossroads,” DeFrank said in a press release. “Data center development brings significant opportunities, but that growth cannot come at the expense of the families and businesses that already depend on reliable and affordable electric service.”

The PAPUC-commissioned analysis found that data centers are a major driver of the tightening power supply across PJM Interconnection, the nation’s largest regional transmission organization. Electricity demand is rising as older power plants shut down and new generation struggles to come online quickly enough, according to the report, which was prepared by Synapse Energy Economics and other consultants.

The analysis modeled several possible futures for the grid. Under its baseline scenario, which uses PJM’s 2026 electricity demand forecast, the grid could experience the equivalent of about 5.9 instances every 10 years in which electricity supply falls short of demand by 2030, according to the report. Researchers said the increase was mainly driven by the large amount of new electricity demand expected from data centers.

Those concerns were put to the test in summer 2026. PJM took emergency steps to avoid widespread blackouts during a July heat wave as electricity demand surged and available reserves fell sharply, according to Reuters. The grid ultimately avoided rolling blackouts.

“PJM agrees with the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission’s assessment of the current challenges facing the grid: Electricity demand, driven primarily by data centers and other large loads, continues to grow at a faster rate than the ability to build new generation, potentially compromising reliability of the system over the next five years while also contributing to increased electricity costs,” Jeff Shields, Senior Manager, External Communications of PJM, told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Under a scenario with even faster electricity demand growth and fewer new power supplies, that figure jumps to more than 13 days per year in which the grid could lack enough electricity to meet demand, according to the analysis. By contrast, a scenario assuming no new data centers connect to PJM beginning in 2027 produced an estimated shortage once every 20 years.

“PJM has taken a number of actions to both increase electricity supply and manage new demand in line with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge taken by data center developers to shield residential customers and other ratepayers from bearing reliability risks or cost increases associated with data center development,” Shields said.

On July 2, PJM’s electricity demand reached an all-time high of about 168,158 megawatts after accounting for customers who were paid to cut their electricity use, according to PJM grid operator.

“Pennsylvania has been an active and effective partner in these short-term and long-term efforts, which include: 1) Streamlining permitting to remove barriers for new generation resources; 2) Establishing a price cap and floor on our capacity markets to protect both consumers and suppliers from market volatility; 3) Setting forth common-sense rules to allow for data center development in accordance with the Ratepayer Protection Pledge and the Statement of Principles laid out by the 13 Governors in PJM’s footprint and the White House National Energy Dominance Council,” Shields told the DCNF.

“PJM believes these combined, focused efforts can preserve reliable electrical service in the near and long term without unfairly burdening regular ratepayers,” he added.

The Department of Energy (DOE) also issued emergency orders in late June and again in July specifically aimed at reducing blackout risks across the Mid-Atlantic. The orders allowed PJM to call on additional power plants and backup generators as electricity demand climbed during extreme heat, according to the DOE.

The difference becomes particularly stark at the end of the decade. Between 2029 and 2030, rising demand, primarily from data centers, causes the modeled risk of electricity shortages to triple under the baseline scenario and increase 48-fold under the high-demand scenario, according to the report.

The warning does not only apply to Pennsylvania. The state is served by PJM which powers roughly 67 million people across 13 states and Washington, D.C. The same system is confronting rapidly rising electricity demand, driven largely by data centers. PJM projects roughly 32 gigawatts of additional peak electricity demand by 2030, with about 30 gigawatts or roughly 94%, coming from data centers.

PJM did not immediately respond to DCNF’s request for comment.

PJM warned in August that large new electricity users could add demand through 2038, even as about 15 gigawatts of power-plant capacity has gone offline since 2022.

The artificial intelligence boom is also expected to dramatically increase demand for natural gas. American data centers are projected to consume an additional 15 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day to generate electricity by 2035, BloombergNEF projected.

The North American Electric Reliability Corporation has warned that electricity demand is outpacing supply in several regions as data centers and other large loads connect to the grid.

PJM’s most recent capacity auction failed to procure enough generation to meet its reliability requirement, falling 6,831 megawatts short, the grid operator announced in August.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include a quote from Shields that was sent post-publication.