Legal/Law/Criminal Justice and Reform

Survey Spells Bad News For Anti-Gunners

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Americans own tens of millions of modern semiautomatic firearms that are the subject of a pending Supreme Court case, a Georgetown University professor estimated in a study released in August.

The study, which came five years after an initial effort in 2021, includes new data on the popularity of modern semiautomatic firearms that could influence Viramontes v. Cook County, a lawsuit seeking to invalidate a local ban on so-called “assault weapons” first passed by the Illinois county in 2006. The data suggests that these modern firearms could be found to be “in common use,” making them protected under the Supreme Court’s Second Amendment precedents in Heller and Bruen.

William English, an assistant professor of strategy, economics, ethics, and public policy at Georgetown University, surveyed 51,398 U.S. residents aged 18 and older for the study, identifying 16,688 gun owners who provided detailed responses about firearm ownership and use, including the use of firearms for self-defense. English estimated that at least 88 million Americans own over 460 million firearms, including 60 million modern semiautomatic rifles and 539 million detachable magazines holding more than 10 rounds.

“In general, firearms ownership continued to diversify, both with regard to minorities and women in particular,” English told the Daily Caller News Foundation when reached for comment.

In May, Virginia Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger signed a ban on modern semiautomatic firearms, which drew immediate legal challenges from pro-Second Amendment organizations. Prior to the law taking effect, purchasers raced to buy the banned firearms.

The law was later blocked by judges, and the case was on hold pending the Supreme Court’s decision in Viramontes. English’s study also provided data on how many people owned modern semiautomatic firearms, providing a figure higher than previously public estimates.

“25.0% of gun owners currently own an AR-15 type rifle, 12.9% currently own other similarly styled semi-automatic rifles, and 30.0% – approximately 26.4 million adults – currently own at least one firearm in one of these two categories, with approximately 40 million AR-15 type rifles and 20 million other similarly styled rifles owned in total,” the study says.

According to estimates released by the National Shooting Sports Foundation in January, there were over 32 million “modern sporting rifles” in circulation, with 2.8 million sold in 2020 alone. Additionally, a New York Times article published on May 13 noted that both the AR-15 semiautomatic rifle—which resembles the military’s M16 and M4 select-fire weapons—and semiautomatic rifles featuring cosmetic additions that mimic fully automatic AK-47s remain popular firearms owned by millions of civilians.

One prominent researcher into the effects of crime said the results would likely be cited in the Supreme Court’s decision on the case, which is expected to be released in June 2027 following oral arguments on Dec. 2.

“I think it is well timed and I think it will be, you know, something that will be mentioned in the assault weapon ban case,” Dr. John Lott, president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, told the DCNF. “It’s going to come up before the Supreme Court because it will give people an estimate of how commonly all these types of guns are and that even, and I think that will be a major part, something that the court will consider.”

The survey found that the most common reason people owned modern semiautomatic firearms was home defense (77.7%), followed by recreational target shooting (65.1%), hunting (50.2%), defense outside the home (41.1%), protection against animal attacks (33.8%) and competitive shooting sports (25.9%).

”The initial reports are encouraging and it reinforces what we’ve known to be the truth,” National Shooting Sports Foundation Managing Director of Public Affairs Mark Oliva told the DCNF. ”Modern Sporting Rifles are commonly owned and commonly used for lawful purposes each and every day by tens of millions of law-abiding citizens. These are semi firearms that operate in the same manner as a duck hunting shotgun. Prohibiting the lawful possession of these firearms is nothing short of denying a right protected by the U.S. Constitution.”

For almost 40 years, anti-Second Amendment groups like Brady United, Everytown and Giffords sought to ban modern semiautomatic firearms, labeling them as ”assault weapons” to paint them as dangerous. The firearms were banned by federal law as part of the 1994 crime bill signed by then-President Bill Clinton, but the provision expired ten years later.

Associate Justice Clarence Thomas wrote a dissent to the 2000 Supreme Court decision in Stenberg v. Carhart, noting the term ”assault weapons” was a euphemism that gun-control advocates used to gain support for banning firearms.

On Aug. 28, the Second Amendment Foundation (SAF) filed its opening brief in Viramontes. The brief, while noting the popularity of AR-15-style rifles, argues the appellate courts that heard both the Viramontes case and a similar case involving Connecticut’s ban on modern semiautomatic firearms failed to properly apply the Supreme Court’s Heller and Bruen cases, which struck down laws that infringed on the Second Amendment right to bear arms – particularly when the arms are commonly owned by people for lawful purposes.