Commentary: Big Tent Ideas

Welcome To Donald Trump’s Forever War

Screenshot/Rumble/Fox Business

The original title of this piece was “Not Yet a Forever War,” but things move fast in President Donald Trump’s world.

Bombing another country is an act of war. Doing so repeatedly as the United States has done to Iran means a state of war exists. Yet the possibility remained it would be a short one. Now in a classic case of mission creep, war with Iran is morphing into a forever war.

The original justification for the war was preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. One could (I don’t) dispute the method – lots of bombs – but not the motivation. Allowing a nation run by psychopaths to have a nuclear bomb would be the epitome of stupid.

Iran’s plan for obtaining a deliverable nuclear weapon receded into the future after the June 2025 attacks on its nuclear facilities. It receded further with the more recent attacks on Iran’s leadership, military and military-industrial complex. And if years from now the Iranians again threatened to have a nuke, a future president could Trump-style painfully explain the error of their ways.

Thus after the initial 2026 attacks, Trump came to a fork in the road. The smart option was to declare victory and withdraw from the warzone. Keep all the sanctions on Iran, but otherwise back off because the critical core mission had been accomplished.

If Iran blockaded shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, then under the smart option the United States would blockade Iranian shipping but refuse to play policeman. Regional powers could respond to Iran’s continued belligerence. If Iran attacked Kuwait, Kuwait could do more than just shoot down missiles. Likewise, Europe could in theory muster its navies to respond, assuming their ships could sortie from their homeports.

Thus the smart tine in the fork was to withdraw from battle, clear victory in hand. To do otherwise embraces some version of the disastrous philosophy of, “you broke it, you own it.” Trump broke it. He could have just walked.

Instead, Trump chose to own it. Perhaps intoxicated by the magnificent performance of the U.S. military, Trump tried to force Iran to accept unacceptable (to Iran) conditions. This is similar to Russia seeking to force Ukraine to give up territory in negotiations that Russian forces can’t capture in battle. Good luck with that, in both cases.

Trump may be the greatest dealmaker alive and is Commander-in-Chief of the finest military in history, but the Iranians are the greatest flim-flam negotiators. It is said the Iranians have never won a war, but nor have they lost a negotiation.

In producing his now defunct Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), Trump relied on hope and fantasy. Few, if any, believed Iran would adhere to the MOU’s terms for more than a few days. And it didn’t. As even Trump now acknowledges, the Iranian rulers are “violent, vicious people,” “scum,” and “liars”.

So now we come to the middle tine in the fork in the road: The bombing of Iran resumes; the dueling blockades resume, and; the Iranian attacks on shipping resume. Still, Trump could drop tons of bombs, greenlight Israel to kill a few more Iranian leaders as they’ve threatened to assassinate him, and then declare victory and go home. Though delayed, the smart option was still available. It was not yet a forever war.

The war has attained forever status.

President Trump declared, “The U.S.A will be, from this point forward, THE GUARDIAN OF THE HORMUZ STRAIT.” Talk about mission creep.

Trump declared the United States would impose a 20% toll on shipping through the Strait to compensate the United States for guardian costs incurred. He has a point. The American taxpayer shouldn’t foot this bill. He subsequently backtracked on the toll idea, but it suggests the trend of his thinking.

If the United States is now the guardian of the Strait, against whom are they guarding? The Iranians, of course.

And are the Iranians willing to forego their own claims to control of the Strait? No.

Have they demanded they be allowed to impose their own toll? Yes.

Have they shown a willingness to strike shipping in the Strait, matching the U.S. military’s ability to surgically strike engineering compartments of intrepid seafarers? Yes.

In declaring a Strait guardianship, President Trump declared that war with Iran will continue indefinitely, leaving Trump with no exit ramp on the horizon. The Iranians will never quit as long as they are in power. President Trump has no quit in him, even when just taking the win is wise. Thus, President Trump now has his own forever war. It is just a stupid as America’s previous forever wars. Make an exit ramp out of rubble if necessary. And take it. That’s the real deal.

J.D. Foster is the former chief economist at the Office of Management and Budget and former chief economist and senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. He now resides in relative freedom in the hills of Idaho.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.