Commentary: Big Tent Ideas

DAVID BLACKMON: LNG Will Play Major Role In Trump’s ‘Energy Fortress America’

(Wikimedia Commons/Public/Mehr)

Critics and fans alike of President Donald Trump have recently taken to accusing him of attempting to build an “Energy Fortress America” in his second presidency. If that’s true, U.S. LNG will be a watchman on the fortress’s walls.

The pace of commissioning and construction of additional U.S. LNG export projects has accelerated in the wake of Iran’s attack on Qatar’s major LNG hub at Ras Lafan. QatarEnergy declared a force majeure situation following the mid-March missile attack, saying the completion of full repairs would take three to five years. That removed roughly 17% of global LNG production from the market, though QatarEnergy says it will be able to execute a partial restart as soon as late April.

QatarEnergy has not provided exact specifications detailing its remaining production capacity once a restart is executed, but it is known that at least two of the plant’s 14 trains will remain offline until replacement equipment – made by only three companies worldwide – can be acquired and installed. Supply chains for the needed parts are backed up for years. Satellite imagery recently showed heat signatures from two of the Ras Laffan trains, indicating they could be capable of a fast restart. But even that remains up in the air unless and until Iran’s stranglehold on tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is resolved.

Energy consultancy Wood MacKenzie cautions against optimism about a restart in the near term. “The ceasefire means it may be possible for the 14 trapped laden LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit the Strait of Hormuz and provide some relief to the global gas market,” Tom Marzec-Manser, head of Europe Gas and LNG for Wood-Mac, said this week. “But for there to be a real structural change in supply, the Ras Laffan site in Qatar would need to restart its 12 operable trains. It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire, however.”

This paralysis at one the world’s two biggest LNG suppliers creates a new market opportunity for U.S. exporters, especially among the Asian markets to which most of Qatar’s exports flowed prior to March. The biggest buyers of Qatar LNG include China, South Korea, Japan, Pakistan and Bangladesh. While Europe only acquired about 7% of its LNG from Qatar in 2025, Kpler warned in March that Qatar’s force majeure would cause a cascade of impacts across the global markets. That assessment proved true quickly as LNG prices immediately spiked to levels not seen since the months following Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

The prospect of a significant share of Qatar’s capacity remaining offline for years creates new momentum to ramp up production at active U.S. LNG plants, complete projects already under construction, and accelerate the development of planned facilities that have not already broken ground. It’s a real bonanza akin to the silver and gold rushes of the 19^thcentury.

Perhaps the quickest operator to benefit from this new demand for U.S. production is Venture Global, owner of a pair of big Louisiana-based facilities. On March 13, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said DOE had approved an immediate 13% increase in export volumes from VG’s Plaquemines LNG project, which went live in 2025. “With today’s order, Plaquemines LNG is now authorized to immediately export a total of 3.85 Bcf/d to both FTA (Free Trade Agreement) and non-FTA countries, strengthening global natural gas supplies with reliable American LNG,” DOE said in a March 13 release.

U.S. LNG export capacity was already projected to double by 2030, but most active facilities have the ability to raise their production in response to market demands. Shippers sell most of their production under long-term agreements with major buyers but can sell additional production to short-term customers on the spot market, which is likely more lucrative in the current emergency environment.

Several Texas projects scheduled to come online later this year or in 2027 also appear to be primed to take advantage of the current undersupplied market. Those include Cheniere Energy’s 3^rd train expansion at Corpus Christi LNG, and the Rio Grande LNG project operated by NextDecade.

Is America turning into an Energy Fortress? If so, many outside its walls will be more than happy to accommodate the LNG-laden tankers sailing out of its gates.

David Blackmon is an energy writer and consultant based in Texas. He spent 40 years in the oil and gas business, where he specialized in public policy and communications.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation.

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