Inside The Scenario Where Two Republicans Advance In California’s Primary

Screen Capture/PBS NewsHour

The political consultant who gerrymandered for Democrats warned on Sunday that California could end up with a Republican-only gubernatorial race in November — a gut punch for the party that has kept a supermajority for over a decade.

Speaking to KCRA3 Political Director Ashley Zavala, elections expert Paul Mitchell said there is a roughly 12% chance that GOP gubernatorial contenders Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton appear on the November ballot. In California, all candidates for governor appear on the same ballot regardless of party affiliation. Mitchell noted that while that outcome is unlikely, it could trigger a domino effect for Democrats nationwide.

“It isn’t something that should be dismissed. I mean if there was a 12% chance of me getting into an accident driving over here, we’d be doing this by Zoom. There’s no way I would get in the car,” Mitchell said. “We have to be concerned in our lives about things that are small probabilities and the Democrat party should be concerned about this small probability that two Republicans make the runoff because it could really politically decimate them for November.”

“Even so much as, you know, impacting that Prop. 50 result and the competitive congressional races that Republicans could win, impacting ballot measures, impacting other statewide races,” Mitchell added. “The reality is, is that if two Republicans were on the ballot in November, democratic turnout would be so decimated that it would dramatically impact the politics statewide and potentially nationally. So I was putting this out as kind of a sound the alarm for some people who are asking questions about what’s the likely outcome.”

While California hasn’t elected a Republican governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger took office in 2003, recent polls show GOP candidates Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco neck-and-neck at the front of the pack. In February, EMC Research, a poll sponsored by Democratic Rep. and gubernatorial candidate Eric Swalwell’s campaign, found Bianco drawing 21% support among surveyed voters, with Swalwell at 18% and Hilton just behind by one point at 17%.

A second poll from RBI Strategies & Research showed Hilton at 16% and Bianco just one point behind at 15%. A third recent survey by Public Policy Polling, sponsored by Democratic candidate Katie Porter, had Bianco at 18%.

When asked about Mitchell’s warning to Democrats, Bianco told the Daily Caller News Foundation that he wants “the best chances of ending the radical-left’s reign of terror” in order to save his home state. Bianco stated that he has not only raised his children here but has also lived with the bad policies that do not affect the “wealthy career politicians or multi-millionaire strategists.”

“We have a plan to win this election, whether it’s one Republican or two Republicans,” Bianco said. “Anyone whose intention is to save California would try and get two Republicans through the primary, or at least see how long the polling holds. For me, this isn’t about book deals, becoming famous, or some agenda. This is about saving my home, and I want Republicans to have every chance of winning available.”

However, Hilton’s response to the DCNF cast doubt on the idea that two Republicans could make it through the primary. The GOP gubernatorial candidate additionally criticized Bianco for allegedly kneeling for Black Lives Matter in 2020, a point he has hammered on since the governor’s debate in February.

“The idea that two Republicans will advance to the general election is a fantasy. Who seriously thinks the Democrat machine is just going to sit back and let that happen? The much more serious possibility is that we get two Democrats in the top two: Matt Mahan, the new entrant to the race who is backed by Big Tech, and the candidate the Big Unions will pick as their puppet – either Eric Swalwell or Katie Porter,” Hilton said.

“The only way to avoid that disaster is for us to unite behind the strongest Republican candidate. I’m leading in the polls, leading on fundraising, won the first TV debate in a landslide – while the other Republican in the race simply has too much baggage, starting with the fact that he took a knee for Black Lives Matter,” Hilton added.

Both Democratic Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Eric Swalwell have been floated as their party’s leading contenders for California’s open governor’s race.

However, in October 2025, Porter faced intense backlash after a resurfaced September interview showed her threatening to walk out on a CBS News reporter. The criticism continued when another clip from 2021 resurfaced, showing Porter snapping at a staffer. Amid the fallout, Swalwell announced his campaign for the state’s top job, later earning endorsements from prominent Democrats in California.

In the February poll from EMC Research, Swalwell emerged as the top choice among Democrats, drawing 32% support compared with just 20% for Porter. Other surveys have shown similar trends among party voters, though some analysts have warned that California Democrats appear to be struggling with a lack of clear leadership.

With Newsom withholding an endorsement and many voters sensing he’s already focused on a potential 2028 presidential bid, Zavala asked consultant Paul Mitchell whether an endorsement from the state Democratic Party, set to meet this weekend, could give candidates a needed boost.

“Well, definitely a Democratic Party endorsement for one of these candidates could massively elevate them, but I don’t think that it’s likely to happen. There’s a 60% threshold, I think it is,” Mitchell said. “All these candidates that are running have their own political bases. I don’t think that in the next week and a half that voters in the delegation process at the convention are going to end up rallying behind one of these candidates.”