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Charles Payne Analyzes How Market Forces Affect Home Prices In 2026

Charles Payne Predicts How Market Forces Affect Home Prices In 2026 (Screenshot/Fox News)

Fox Business host Charles Payne predicted Friday that market forces will drive home prices lower as affordability pressures intensify.

U.S. home prices have nearly tripled over the past 25 years, pushing the median price above $410,000 as higher mortgage rates have driven the median first-time buyer’s age to 40, as the Trump administration moved to curb institutional buying of single-family homes and ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities to ease borrowing costs. Payne said on “Special Report with Bret Baier” that the steps have produced only marginal relief.

“They move the needle slightly. Here’s the problem. This is the worst affordability problem we’ve had ever. Put it in perspective, Bret, to get to 2009 affordability, three things could happen. Incomes can go up by 56%. Don’t think that’s going to happen anytime soon,” Payne told host Bret Baier. “Home prices can go down by 35%. Or mortgages can go to 2.65%. So you can see how daunting the task is. And the White House is trying their best to chip away at any aspect of it that they can. And listen, we need more homes that have to be built.”

Payne said easing mortgage rates and a cost gap between renting and owning could force a market correction.

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“We hope mortgages start to come down. And the one thing that should help is basic economics. Renting is so much cheaper than home ownership right now. Anytime this has happened in history, home prices have naturally come down,” Payne said.

Housing costs have squeezed Americans in recent years as prices surged and supply lagged demand. The average price of a U.S. single-family home hit a record $432,700 in June 2025, according to Trading Economics, citing National Association of Realtors data. A Goldman Sachs report from October 2025 estimated the country must build three to four million additional homes above normal construction levels to ease the shortage and restore affordability.

The share of first-time home buyers fell to a record low of 21%, according to a National Association of Realtors report released in November 2025. That same month, the Trump administration floated plans to introduce 50-year mortgage terms in an effort to make homeownership more attainable.

(Featured Image Media Credit: Screenshot/Fox News)