Foreign Affairs

EU Officials Admit Europe Will Actually Have To Kick More Cash Toward Its Own Defenses Once Trump Returns

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Officials from France and Germany conceded Wednesday that Europe will need to spend more on its own defenses now that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is set to return to power, according to Politico EU.

Trump beat out Vice President Kamala Harris in the U.S. Tuesday presidential elections by wide margins and will take the Oval Office in January. If she had won, Harris would have likely taken President Joe Biden’s seemingly no-holds-barred approach to Europe, especially on security collaboration — but with Trump, officials from France and Germany believe that Europe must do more to stay in his good graces, especially on defense spending, according to Politico EU.

“With the new U.S. president’s political outlook diverging from that of his predecessors, we need to manage this situation, prepare for it and underline the efforts we are already making,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius told reporters on Wednesday following a meeting with French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

Part of that calculus stems from the likelihood that the U.S.’ “attention” will shift toward dealing with threats in the Indo-Pacific and China, Pistorius said. “By doing so, they’ll be able to do less in Europe. We need to fill this gap to be more credible in terms of deterrence.”

China is rapidly expanding its military and has become increasingly hostile toward U.S. allies, such as Taiwan and the Philippines, in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. has become increasingly concerned that Chinese aggression will become a flashpoint for a potential future global war.

Pistorius and Lecornu met in France on Wednesday to discuss the implications of Trump’s win, and what it could mean for the future of NATO, according to Politico EU. Trump took serious issue with Europe and NATO during his first term, arguing that it was unfair that the U.S. was spending the most on defenses while other European countries were failing to meet their spending goals.

NATO members are obligated and expected to spend at least 2% of their total gross domestic product (GDP) on defenses, and when Trump first took office, only a fraction were meeting that target. Trump threatened on several occasions during his first term to withdraw the U.S. from NATO unless Europe started spending more on defenses.

The threat compelled several European nations to comply, and by 2020, several other members were meeting their targets.

Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the majority of NATO members are meeting their defense spending targets, given that the conflict is a direct threat to their national security. But Trump has continued to warn that if NATO members fail to meet their goals when he takes office, he will not promise U.S. support for the alliance.

Both Pistorius and Lecornu touted the fact that Germany and France are currently meeting and exceeding their defense spending targets, according to Politico. Lecornu said that improving Europe’s security goes beyond just meeting budget targets — it also requires ensuring the availability of physical military assets, such as troops and vehicles.

“Budget curves don’t protect, deter and defend, real contributions do,” Lecornu said on Wednesday. Europe cannot let its “military capability gap grow,” he added.

Trump’s approach to the Russia-Ukraine war is likely to look different from Biden’s. Biden has pledged unwavering support for Ukraine’s defenses against Russia and provided tens of billions of dollars in military aid, but it has done little to shift the tide in Kyiv’s favor.

It is unlikely Biden will be able to make significant progress in ending the war between now and the end of his term. Neither Russia nor Ukraine have shown signs of slowing down — even with little territorial gains on either side and at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives.

Trump has promised that he will end the war before he takes office in January, citing his relationship with both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and his ability to bring both to the negotiating table.