Foreign Affairs

Biden Admin’s Approach Not Enough To Help Venezuela With Its Socialist Dictator Problem: Analysts

Maduro screenshot/PBS NewsHour

The Biden administration’s diplomatic moves are far from helping transition Venezuela away from its dictatorship and back towards a democratic system, following the country’s seemingly fraudulent elections in July, according to national security experts and a review of public statements and records.

Venezuelan incumbent President Nicolas Maduro, widely considered a socialist dictator, declared himself the victor in the country’s July 29 elections, despite domestic and international concerns that he rigged the race. The Biden administration, which has had problems in dealing with the country’s authoritarian government before, faces a new challenge in navigating how to deal with Maduro and his refusal to step aside.

“The reality is, we are now going with a strategy where we’re not pushing hard on the Maduro regime,” Andres​​​​ Martinez-Fernandez, senior policy analyst for Latin America at The Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “And it’s all favorable to the regime because it keeps it in control.”

“[The Biden administration will offer] vague words of support for the people (of Venezuela) after an obviously fraudulent election but do nothing to destabilize a regime with whom they want a deal,” senior defense executive at the Heritage Foundation and former White House national security advisor Victoria Coates said in a statement following the election.

The Biden administration has tried to work diplomatically with Venezuela, a hotspot for illegal migration into the U.S. and an oil-rich nation, since 2021, although attempts have been largely unsuccessful. The administration lifted sanctions against Venezuela’s oil sector in late 2023 — a move intended to open the country’s energy channels and lower global and U.S. oil prices — in exchange for the promise that Maduro would hold free and fair elections this year.

Sanctions were reimposed in April by the administration, which claimed that Maduro’s regime had shown that it was not interested in allowing an open democratic process to play out. Maduro prevented many of his political opponents from appearing on the ballot by weaponizing the country’s legal system against them and barring them from government.

The Biden administration and a number of Latin American nations have refused to recognize Maduro’s victory in July as legitimate, citing reports of independently conducted vote tallies indicating that Maduro’s political opponent, Edmundo Gonzalez, won instead. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement on Aug. 1 that it was “time for the Venezuelan parties to begin discussions on a respectful, peaceful transition” of power away from Maduro to Gonzalez.

But Maduro is still refusing to leave, and the government’s top prosecutor issued a criminal investigation on Monday into González and his party ally, Maria Machado, both of whom have fled into hiding citing fears that they will be arrested or killed if found by law enforcement. Protesters have taken to the streets of Venezuela demanding Maduro step down, which has been met with a brutal crackdown by law enforcement.

“Maduro is largely immune from Western pressure,” Oliver Stuenkel, a political analyst at the Getulio Vargas Foundation, told The Washington Post last week. “He doesn’t depend much on friendly relations with them.”

A State Department spokesperson told the DCNF that the U.S. is in “coordination with our international partners” in supporting “an inclusive, Venezuelan-led process of the re-establishment of democratic norms.”

“We are working with our partners on this – look no further than the President’s call with [Brazilian President Lula da Silva] last week,” the spokesperson told the DCNF. “In the meantime, we strongly condemn all political violence and repression. Secretary Blinken spoke separately on Aug. 3 with Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia and Maria Corina Machado to express the United States’ concern for their safety and well-being following the election.”

The U.S. still has existing sanctions on Venezuela, but has not announced plans for new sanctions, which against military officials would be helpful, Martinez-Fernandez told the DCNF, because it would undermine Maduro’s only true protection from being ousted. The Biden administration could also choose to pursue criminal charges through vessels including the International Criminal Court.

The Biden administration has not yet taken these other actions to support a transition back toward a democratic system in Venezuela.

“The Biden administration is putting all of its eggs in the basket of diplomatic and negotiated resolution… they’re talking about the need for transparency and the need for the parties to have dialog, all very mild statements,” Martinez-Fernandez told the DCNF. “That’s certainly not going to have any impact as far as the regime in Venezuela goes, or a potential exit through negotiations.”

More than 2,200 people have been arrested by Venezuela’s law enforcement since the July 28 elections, according to The Washington Post. Human rights group Victims Monitor says at least 23 people have been killed so far by Maduro-aligned forces during the protests.

Maduro’s government warned this week that, in addition to protesters, journalists working for international networks may become targets of law enforcement as well, claiming that they were secret CIA operatives, according to the Post.

“What made this [election] different was that for the first time in years, the Venezuelan people had genuine hope for change,” Eric Farnsworth, vice president of the Council of the Americas and the Americas Society, told the Boston Globe on Monday. “But Maduro has shut the door on any hope for peaceful change.”

(Featured image credit: screenshot/PBS NewsHour)