Politics

Could Joe Biden’s Natural Gas Pause Cost Dems The Senate In November?

President Joe Biden departs after delivering remarks on Building a Better America, Friday, January 28, 2022, at Mill 19 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

• The Biden administration’s January decision to pause approvals for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) could shake up the 2024 election cycle in Pennsylvania and cost Democrats control of the Senate, Pennsylvanians and political analysts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
• Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey is in a competitive race with Republican challenger Dave McCormick to represent the swing state in the Senate for the next six years, and disaffected working-class Pennsylvania voters opposed to the LNG pause could decide which party controls the legislature’s upper chamber going forward.
• “The problem so far is that Senator Casey has yet to do — actually do — anything to modify or stop the pause. That’s ultimately the measuring stick voters are going to use to assess his commitment to their economic futures in Pennsylvania,” Mike McKenna, a Republican political consultant who has experience in the energy sector, told the DCNF.

The politics of the Biden administration’s restrictions on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports could cause serious problems for an incumbent Democrat senator and potentially cost Democrats control of the Senate in November, political pundits and strategists told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey is up for reelection this cycle, and his state was the second-largest natural gas producing state in the country in 2022, according to data from the U.S. Energy information Administration. The Biden administration’s January decision to pause approvals for new LNG export terminals could drag Casey down with voters in working-class communities that depend on the natural gas sector, an outcome that could spell trouble for Democrats given that two losses in this year’s Senate races will ensure that the chamber is under GOP control for at least the next two years, the political pundits and strategists told the DCNF.

“I think this pause is actually the worst of both worlds for Senator Casey. It’s very likely to hit Pennsylvania’s working class voters in the pocketbook, not only by leading to job losses in the state but also by driving up energy costs and continuing the inflation that has been one of the top issues since President Biden took office,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst who works for North Star Opinion Research, told the DCNF. “On the other side, he and Senator Fetterman issued a weak statement saying, in effect, ‘If this hurts Pennsylvania, we’ll have to have words with Joe Biden.’ That statement is too weak to demonstrate any independence, but by questioning it at all, Casey may have aggravated some environmentalists who may not turnout to support him in November.”

The oil and natural gas sectors directly support more than 90,000 jobs and indirectly support hundreds of thousands more in Pennsylvania, according to the American Petroleum Institute, and organized labor interests have a considerable stake in the state’s natural gas industry, according to Politico. Pennsylvania produced about 20% of the country’s natural gas in 2022, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Environmentalists and climate activists have touted the LNG pause as a major victory, but it remains to be seen whether blue-collar communities are as disaffected as the environmental left is excited. President Joe Biden earned approximately 81,000 more votes in Pennsylvania, which has a total population of about 13 million people, than former President Donald Trump did in the 2020 election, according to Politico. Climate activists and organized labor are both poised to be key support bases for Biden and down-ballot Democrats in the 2024 cycle.

Republicans running to represent Pennsylvania in federal office are likely to use the LNG pause and the friction it generates inside the Democrats’ coalition to their political advantage as the 2024 cycle heats up, a National Republican Senatorial Committee official familiar with the potential strategy told the DCNF.

Casey and fellow Democrats “want their cake and to eat it too by trying to placate both the radical greens and the unions working in the gas fields,” Matt Brouillette, the founder and CEO of the Pennsylvania-focused entrepreneurial chamber Commonwealth Partners, told the DCNF. “They have clearly shown that they are on team green rather than team gas,” he continued, adding that the decision is likely to accelerate the ongoing shift of the state’s working-class away from the Democratic Party.

Casey may already realize the potential problems posed by that friction, as he issued a Feb. 1 joint statement with Democratic Pennsylvania Sen. John Fetterman to clarify that “if this decision puts Pennsylvania energy jobs at risk, we will push the Biden administration to reverse this decision.”

“When Joe Biden and Bob Casey look at our nation’s bountiful fossil fuel reserves, they see a problem, not an opportunity. They fail to realize that we can achieve American energy dominance by unleashing resources in places like Pennsylvania while simultaneously protecting the environment and reducing emissions,” Dave McCormick, a Republican who is poised to be Casey’s main challenger in November, told the DCNF. McCormick currently trails Casey by about nine points in the Real Clear Polling average.

Because the GOP only needs to win just two seats from Democrats to regain control of the Senate, and since Republican West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice looks to have all but locked up the seat being vacated by retiring Democratic West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, the stakes are high in Pennsylvania and other swing states. The GOP also figures to be competitive in toss-up Senate races in Montana, Ohio and Arizona, according to analysis from the Cook Political Report.

“The problem so far is that Senator Casey has yet to do — actually do — anything to modify or stop the pause,” Mike McKenna, a Republican political consultant who has experience in the energy sector, told the DCNF. “That’s ultimately the measuring stick voters are going to use to assess his commitment to their economic futures in Pennsylvania. It’s the downside of being an incumbent: you’re responsible for actions and outcomes.”

Casey plans to rebut any incoming fire from Republicans on this issue by touting green energy investments and jobs in Pennsylvania attributable to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Biden’s signature climate bill that became law in 2022 without a single Republican vote, according to Politico.

“There’s a lot of investment coming in from the IRA. But how persuasive it is to average voters is not so well-known,” Kevin Book, a managing director for ClearView Energy Partners, told the DCNF. “Over and over again, the White House has been taking this message to factories across the U.S., and it is not clear what type of traction it really has.”

The Casey and Biden campaigns did not respond immediately to requests for comment.