Politics

Gen Z Voters Could Give Democrats A Decades-Long Advantage

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Gen Z voters could give Democrats a large advantage both in the election tomorrow and in elections for decades, according to two reports examining the politics of the United States’ youngest voters.

The reports from the Harvard Institute of Politics and the Center for American Progress (CAP) show both high voting enthusiasm and overwhelming support for Democratic nominee Joe Biden.

Not only do 63% of Americans aged 18-29 say that they “definitely” plan to vote, according to the Harvard-Harris poll, but their enthusiasm for the former vice president has grown.

Both Gen Z and Millennial voters are more liberal than older Americans, which poses a growing challenge for Republicans as the two generations become a large part of the American electorate, the CAP report outlines. Its model predicts an 8%-18% popular vote advantage for Democrats by 2036, disadvantaging Republicans in the electoral college as well.

Per early voting data, youth voter turnout is up & it could surge in 2020.

There are many reasons why this could be:

6.8 million more young voters have a vote history in 2020 than 2016

The # of young voters on the voting record & visible to campaigns is 2x what it was in ‘16

— Rachel Janfaza (@racheljanfaza) October 25, 2020

While the two groups are expected to comprise approximately 35% of the voters in this year’s election, according to CAP, they are expected to amount for nearly 60% of the electorate by 2036.

The shift could be detrimental for the GOP, since research shows that voters often stick to the party that they first vote for, Axios reported. Young voters “will have voted for Democrats so repeatedly that it would be hard to shake them of that,” GOP pollster Kristen Soltis told the outlet.

Despite the growing share of young voters, however, their allegiance to the Democratic party is not set in stone. William H. Frey, the author of the CAP report, said that it was up to Democrats to “satisfy and cultivate” the group, and added that some younger demographics are not as enthusiastic about Biden.

It is about whether “[Biden], and especially Kamala Harris, do those kinds of things that will keep [young voters] energized. There’s strong voting this time, but it’s going to be largely against Trump… it’s not so much being energized by the Democrats.”