Foreign Affairs

Naming Terrorist Behind Oct. 7 Attack As New Hamas Leader Won’t Turn Tide Of Gaza War, Experts Say

A scene in Gaza (Screen Capture/Voice of America)

The architect of Hamas’ attacks against Israel on Oct. 7 has seized full control of the terrorist group — but is unlikely to shift the war or improve the group’s failing capabilities, defense experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

In addition to his military responsibilities, Hamas announced Tuesday that Sinwar will now take on the role of the terror group’s political leader, which was previously held by Ismael Haniyeh, who was assassinated in a bomb explosion in Iran on July 31, according to several reports. Haniyeh’s death and Sinwar’s promotion are unlikely to alter the terrorist group’s goals in its war against Israel, defense experts told the DCNF. But it also speaks to how the number of players on Hamas’ bench is increasingly diminishing as it continues to lose in the war, they said.

The U.S. believes that roughly half of Hamas’ fighting forces have been defeated since Oct. 7, according to The Council on Foreign Relations.

“The Israelis have really done Hamas in, and and the organization may indeed be teetering,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the DCNF. “The direction of the calculus hasn’t changed. But if Sinwar is looking to claim something, I think all that he can claim is the mantle of a terrorist organization that has really turned Gaza into rubble. There’s not really much else to take.”

Sinwar has been involved with Hamas for decades and took over as the group’s leader in Gaza in 2017, warning that he would “break the neck” of anyone who challenged his power. Sinwar helped orchestrate Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks against Israel and subsequently has been relentlessly pursued by the Israeli military.

Haniyeh was a more public figure than Sinwar, who went into hiding — likely in tunnels underneath Gaza — after the Oct. 7 attacks.

A spokesperson for the Israeli military told the DCNF that Sinwar’s new role “doesn’t prevent us from pursuing him, it motivates us to find him and target him.” Like Haniyeh, Sinwar would be “replace[d]” as well, the spokesperson told the DCNF.

“This is what it looks like when your top leadership is killed. Up and down the chain, you have to unspool that leadership and concentrate it among those who are still alive, even though Sinwar’s days are numbered too,” Gabriel Noronha, executive director at Polaris National Security and former State Department official, told the DCNF. “Hamas isn’t distributing leadership or power, they’re consolidating it.”

A complication that may arise from Sinwar’s new position is the ongoing ceasefire negotiations with Israel, defense experts said. Though Haniyeh was Hamas’ top negotiator in the ceasefire talks, Sinwar was the true “decision-maker,” a White House National Security Council (NSC) official told the DCNF. Hamas has rejected several ceasefire proposals since Oct. 7.

“The Hamas team in Doha could not act without hearing from him, for example,” the NSC official told the DCNF, referring to the capital of Qatar, the nexus for ongoing negotiations. “So [Sinwar’s new role] really changes nothing.”

The U.S. and international negotiators are still trying to keep ceasefire talks alive. An NSC official told the DCNF that Hamas must quickly accept “the deal now on the table,” referring to the most current ceasefire proposal that would end the war and see the release of hostages in Gaza, of which there are over 100.

Neither Israel nor Hamas has been able to agree on the full terms for a deal, and conflict inside of Gaza has not ended, although Israel has wrapped some of its military operations. It is unclear what the plan would be to rebuild the region after the war ended, or which nations would be involved.

“Initial reactions in the Arab world to Sinwar’s appointment reflect skepticism about the Palestinian’s ability to exit the deadlock they are in,” former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told the DCNF. “Accordingly, the willingness of key Arab actors, whose importance is critical for the future of Gaza and the Palestinians in general, to advance practical solutions for the post-war period is diminishing.”

Featured image credit: A scene in Gaza (Screen Capture/Voice of America)