Election/Election Integrity

Harris Honeymoon Fizzles Out As Trump Leads In Sun Belt Battlegrounds

Former President Donald Trump has gained ground and is leading Vice President Kamala Harris in key Sun Belt states, according to a New York Times/Siena poll from Monday.

Trump gained in Arizona and is now leading Harris by five points with the two candidates polling at 50% and 45% among likely voters respectively, according to the poll. At the same time, Trump has also held onto his lead over Harris in Georgia by four points and in North Carolina by two points.

While the Republican candidate is leading, a significant portion of likely voters across all three states are independents, according to the poll. On average, 31% of likely voters in the Sun Belt consider themselves Democrats, 33% identify as Republicans and 31% say they are independents.

The top issues for Sun Belt likely voters are the economy and immigration, polling at 26% and 16% ,respectively, according to the poll. When it comes to handling these top issues, 50% of likely voters trust Trump while just 46% prefer Harris.

Under Harris’ purview, who has previously been dubbed the Border Czar, there have been over 10 million nationwide migrant encounters, according to data from U.S. Customs and Border Patrol. During the Biden-Harris administration, there have been over 8 million migrant encounters on the Southern Border alone.

Inflation and economic struggles have also been a recurring theme over the last four years, with the national debt skyrocketing to $35 trillion for the first time in American history in July.

Several Biden-Harris initiatives, like the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act, have hiked up the federal deficit. The American Rescue Plan, which passed in March 2021, approved $1.9 trillion in spending, and the Inflation Reduction Act, which passed in August 2022, authorized an additional $750 billion in spending.

While Trump is leading, both candidates are viewed unfavorably across the Sun Belt, according to the poll. On average, Trump is polling at 47% favorability and 50% unfavourability across likely voters, while Harris is polling at 46% favorability and 51% unfavourability.

In Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, only 30%, 24% and 28% of likely voters think the country is on the right track and roughly two-thirds say the country is headed in the wrong direction, according to the poll. This trend remains the same across groups irrespective of age and gender.

Although Trump won North Carolina in 2020, President Joe Biden won both Arizona and Georgia in 2020.

The NYT/Siena poll surveyed 2,077 likely voters in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina from Sept. 17 to Sept. 21 with a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.