Commentary: Big Tent Ideas

COOPERMAN AND YOUNG: Democrats Bet Big On Abortion To Win Women — But It Might Not Pay Off

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Since the Supreme Court ended the constitutional right to abortion in June, Democrats have made reproductive rights the centerpiece of their midterm message with the goal of galvanizing the female vote in an otherwise politically difficult year for the party.

Some data has suggested that the Dobbs v. Jackson decision is in fact energizing women to turn out and support candidates who will protect their right to choose, as the majority of female voters (59%) say they are more motivated to vote this year due to the reversal of Roe v. Wade.

Further, in the months following the Dobbs ruling, women swung toward Democrats in the generic ballot, and there was a surge in new female voter registrations in several purple states, including Pennsylvania, Ohio and Wisconsin.

Yet, with less than three weeks until Election Day, the question remains whether Democrats’ post-Dobbs momentum with female voters will sustain itself in a way that meaningfully impacts the outcome of the midterms.

Recent polling suggests that, while women are still largely backing Democratic candidates in competitive races, there has been an erosion in support for the Democratic Party nationally in the final stretch of the campaign.

Many swing-state Democratic Senate candidates lead by double-digits with women, including Mark Kelly in Arizona, Raphael Warnock in Georgia, Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, and John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. Democrats in close gubernatorial races against anti-abortion opponents, like Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Tony Evers in Wisconsin, also have a substantial female voter advantage.

However, Democrats’ lead with women nationally in the generic ballot for Congress has shrunk 13points in just one month, per New York Times/Siena College polling.

Their latest October survey finds that women are split in terms of their candidate preference for Congress, 47% to 47% – while in September, Democrats led by 13 points.

Remarkably, there has been a 32-point swing to the GOP among Independent women over the last month. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points in the generic ballot, but now back Republicans by 18 points — a striking movement, given how intensely Democrats have courted these voters.

We should not extrapolate too much from one survey, and most others have shown Democrats continuing to lead with women nationally. That being said, most polls are consistent insofar as they all show a recent drop-off in Democrats’ share of the female vote.

The latest Politico/Morning Consult poll finds Democrats ahead by 7 points with women, yet the same pollster registered a 13-point Democratic advantage last month. Likewise, Democrats lead by 9 points with women in a new Economist/YouGov poll, down from 14 points in early September.

This decline has coincided with the diminishing importance of abortion as a national issue, while the economy and inflation – core GOP campaign themes – have once again taken center stage.

The ongoing FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll finds that the share of reproductive aged women, ages 18-44, who said that abortion was one of the top three issues facing the country has dropped from 29% after the Dobbs decision to 12% in their latest survey.

Though the abortion issue is still important to female voters, the economy and inflation evidently take precedence. Women now cite the economy generally (21%) and inflation (17%) as their top priorities, while abortion ranks in a distant third place (9%) – a finding that bodes poorly for Democrats, as 69% of women believe the party should be doing more to address rising prices.

For their part, Republicans have honed in on economic issues in their advertising, slamming Democrats for the high cost of living, while Democrats have largely been running a parallel abortion-focused communications effort.

After Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats hoped that doubling down on reproductive rights would produce a surge in the female vote akin to the 2018 midterms, when women cast ballots and ran for office in record-high numbers, motivated by strong opposition to Donald Trump.

But as the Dobbs decision moves further in the rearview, and as the nation zeroes in on unrelenting inflation and rising gas prices, the chances of female voters once again turning the election into a referendum on the Republican Party seems increasingly less likely.

While there is no indication that Democrats are at risk of losing the female vote, and there is evidence that the abortion issue could very well benefit candidates in specific statewide races, the Democratic Party’s post-Dobbs momentum with women is clearly and demonstrably waning at the national level.

Carly Cooperman is a pollster and partner with the public opinion company Schoen Cooperman Research based in New York. She is the coauthor of the book, “America: Unite or Die.” Follow her on Twitter @carlycooperman. Zoe Young is vice president of Schoen Cooperman Research.