Foreign Affairs

North Korean Nuclear Test Site Goes Oddly Quiet

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North Korea’s nuclear test site has gone oddly quiet after weeks of intense activity.

Satellite imagery from Tuesday showed heightened activity around North Korea’s Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Site. Trucks, as well as a contingent of 70 to 100 people standing in formation, were spotted outside, but images from Wednesday show “considerably less” activity, 38 North, a research site run by the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, reported Thursday.

There are no clearly visible people, vehicles, or trailers, “which suggests that whatever was underway over the past four days is either done or the nature of it has changed,” observers reported. Evidence suggests that water is likely still being pumped from the tunnels, although it is very difficult to distinguish drainage from melted snow, and paths through the snow indicate that guards may still be patrolling the area; nonetheless, activity at the test site has significantly decreased.

While there is evidence of recent activity at the North Portal, all other areas are quiet.

The sudden change could suggest that “preparations are complete and that a test could occur at any time,” analysts explain, “however, based on satellite imagery alone, great caution should be used in making this determination. North Korea clearly understands that the world is watching and is undoubtedly, at some level, attempting to manipulate reporting about developments at Punggye-ri.” The North Koreans know when satellites pass overhead, and they adjust their activities accordingly.

North Korea’s behavior is somewhat abnormal.

“The kind of ‘signaling’ we have seen over the past few days was not observed before either of the nuclear tests in 2016. Similar activity was observed before the 2013 test, but that was before Pyongyang fully understood what we were looking for,” the recent 38 North report explained.

Before things quieted down, researchers detected extensive tunneling for high-yield tests at Punggye-ri. Satellite images showed trucks, trailers, and personnel for the possible installation of monitoring equipment and the running of communication cables. Observers argued at the time that “these factors strongly suggests that test preparations are well underway.”

North Korea has conducted five nuclear tests since 2006. Another test is expected in the near future; however, it is impossible to predict with any accuracy when a North Korean nuclear test will occur.

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