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After oral arguments over the Obamacare contraception mandate before the Supreme Court Wednesday, a 4-4 split appears to be a likely possibility for the case.
The case considers Obamacare’s rule requiring nonprofit employers provide contraception coverage as part of their insurance plans. The Most Rev. David Zubik, the Catholic bishop for Pittsburgh, is leading the charge in the case, which consolidated the complaints of objecting Christian universities and groups like the Little Sisters of the Poor.
But Justice Anthony Kennedy, who is considered the least predictable vote, appeared to be leaning in favor of the religious groups, which would likely cause a 4-4 decision and allow the previous rulings against the religious groups to stand.
Kelly Shackelford, president and CEO of the religious liberty legal group First Liberty Institute, attended the arguments Wednesday and told The Daily Caller News Foundation that based on the Justices’ questions, a 4-4 split seems likely.
“[Justice Kennedy] was very strong in his questions, and I think he was clearly concerned about the religious liberty issues,” Shackelford told TheDCNF.
Hobby Lobby won a Supreme Court case last year that allowed businesses to opt-out of providing certain contraceptives for religious reasons, but it did not extend to nonprofits. The Obama administration hoped to appease religious groups by allowing them to submit an exemption form and allow a third party to provide it instead. But the groups have still taken issue with this and sued. Now the case is before the Supreme Court.
In the Hobby Lobby case, the Justices ruled 5-4 in favor of the company, but without Justice Antonin Scalia, the count would become 4-4.
“After the argument, it seemed that Justice Kennedy was very strong and was very consistent with what he did in Lobby Lobby,” Shackelford told TheDCNF. “Absent some surprise, the four kind of represented the same approach they did in Hobby Lobby.”
Shackelford said SCOTUS could defer until they have another justice to make the ruling or they could end in a tie, thus leaving “chaos” on the issue.
“What this case really does, is it stresses how important the next Justice is,” Shackelford told TheDCNF.
The groups say they are still involved in the process of providing the contraceptives by facilitating the coverage. The Religious Freedom Restoration Act (RFRA) protects them, the groups say, from having to violate their consciences by participating in providing contraception, even if they don’t pay for it. RFRA law states there must be a compelling government interest for violating sincerely held religious beliefs and that the violation must be done in the least restrictive way possible. The groups argue Obamacare has not met that burden.
The court is expected to have a ruling by the end of June.
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