Politics

There’s A Few Major Warning Signs For Biden After Latest Primary Contest

Screenshot/Rumble/Daily Caller

• President Joe Biden received over 80% support from Democratic primary voters in Michigan on Tuesday, but faced a significant protest campaign due to his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.
• Activists formed “Listen To Michigan” to encourage Democrats to support the “uncommitted” ballot option, which received over 100,000 votes, in opposition to Biden’s support for Israel and failure to call for a ceasefire in Gaza.
• “Looking at what happened last night with 19% of primary voters saying they wanted somebody else — whether it was ‘uncommitted’ or chose Williamson or [Phillips] — if he loses even half of that vote come November, he’s in deep trouble in Michigan,” Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “And if he loses Michigan, it’s hard to see where he picks up the pieces to hold on. So last night’s a huge warning sign for Joe Biden. It’s hard to see really what he does to get those folks back.”
  

Despite President Joe Biden winning an overwhelming amount of support from Democratic primary voters in Michigan Tuesday evening, there are several warning signs for his reelection campaign to glean from the results.

Biden faced a state campaign that urged Democratic primary voters to support the “uncommitted” ballot option instead to protest the president’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. A large number of Michiganders supported the option, and there was also a significant enthusiasm gap between turnout in the Democratic and Republican primaries, where former President Donald Trump received more raw votes than Biden did.

“Biden has an Arab problem, and he has a black voter problem in Michigan, and he’s not getting the kind of numbers that he should get. Having said that, I don’t see where ‘uncommitted’ has a home to go to,” Adolph Mongo, a Democratic strategist based in Michigan, told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “They’re gonna find out that a lot of these people gonna stay home, might vote third party, some might crossover and vote Republican, but regardless, it’s gonna be a major issue, as it’s a toss up in Michigan.”

The “Listen To Michigan” campaign, led by Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib‘s sister, Layla Elabed, encouraged those who disagreed with Biden’s support of Israel following the Oct. 7 Hamas terrorist attack to vote “uncommitted” in the primary to send a political message ahead of November.

The ballot option far exceeded Elabed’s goal of 10,000 votes, as over 100,000 Michiganders went “uncommitted,” accounting for 13.3% of the share. Biden only won the battleground state last cycle by roughly 154,000 votes, beating former President Donald Trump by three points.

In 2020, only 19,106 Democratic primary voters supported the “uncommitted” ballot option at 1.2%, and similar portions were reflected in the 2016 election.

Jason Cabel Roe, a GOP consultant based in Michigan, told the DCNF that the alternative ballot option received a “pretty impressive showing” in the state.

“Where I do think it telegraphs problems for Biden is there is no simple answer to his problems. He can either stay where he is on Israel and risk alienating this progressive and Arab coalition, or he can change his position and risk alienating another segment of his coalition. And so I think he has no good pivot from where he is,” Roe told the DCNF.

Michigan is home to one of the country’s largest Arab and Muslim populations, which makes up for a significant voting bloc that typically supports Democratic candidates by large margins. Approximately 200,000 Muslim voters reside in the state, and 145,000 participated in the 2020 election, according to the Michigan chapter of Emgage, a group that seeks to mobilize the community at the polls.

An exit poll conducted by Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) and its Michigan chapter found that 94% of Muslim Americans who voted in the Democratic primary on Tuesday supported the “uncommitted” option. The same survey found that Biden received only 8% support from Muslim Americans in Michigan when asked who they’d vote for if the general election were held today, behind Trump at 13%, “Justice for All Party” candidate Cornel West at 28% and “other” at 40%.

However, Roe believes Biden’s headwinds in the battleground state go far beyond the issue of the war in the Middle East.

“I think it very much has to do with culture, the economy, quality of life, inflation, you know, all these other kitchen table issues where people don’t feel like the Biden years have been as good for them and their households as the Trump years,” said Roe.

Additionally, there was a significant enthusiasm gap between the two parties’ primaries, as roughly 40% more voters participated  in the Republican primary versus the Democrat’s, according to Axios.

“There is not a lot of enthusiasm for Joe Biden in the Democratic Party,” said Roe. “I think the enthusiasm gap both for Republicans who love Trump, and swing voters who are angry about the direction of the country, is reflected in that Republican turnout, and again, I think that’s something that’s going to be very damaging to Biden in November.”

Trump beat former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley by nearly 42 points in the GOP primary, marking his sixth win of the 2024 cycle. The former president also received roughly 138,000 more votes than Biden did.

Biden received 81.1% support from Democratic primary voters, followed by the “uncommitted” option at 13.3%, self-help author Marianne Williamson at 3% and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips at 2.6%.

In the 2020 Michigan primary, Biden received 840,360 votes compared to Trump, the incumbent’s, 640,522.

Jon McHenry, a GOP polling analyst and vice president at North Star Opinion Research, emphasized the small margin Biden won by in 2020, and believes the Michigan primary results should serve as “flashing warning lights” to the incumbent’s reelection campaign.

“Looking at what happened last night with 19% of primary voters saying they wanted somebody else — whether it was ‘uncommitted’ or chose Williamson or [Phillips] — if he loses even half of that vote come November, he’s in deep trouble in Michigan,” said McHenry. “And if he loses Michigan, it’s hard to see where he picks up the pieces to hold on. So last night’s a huge warning sign for Joe Biden. It’s hard to see really what he does to get those folks back.”

The Abandon Biden campaign is another effort that was at play in Michigan ahead of the primary, which encouraged Muslim voters to support anyone but the former president, not specifically to choose the “uncommitted” option. The group is also engaged in battleground states like Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada — all of which Biden won in 2020.

Trump is currently leading Biden by 4.2 points in the RealClearPolitics average for a potential general election rematch in Michigan. Biden is also lagging behind the former president in Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada.

Biden’s campaign did not respond to the DCNF’s request for comment.